Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Surveys Suggest Potential Second Win for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.