Pitches, Bowling Tools and Reserves – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost

Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|